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4 TRILLION $ ECONOMY .. miles to go before we sleep

The chart says it all... India is the 5th largest economy but immediately there were clarifications. On a rolling basis, it appears that India won’t hit $4 trillion till late 2024-early 2025. The sobering aspect (also shown in the chart) is also that the per capita income for India is 2778.06 $ , just marginally ahead of Nigeria's 2271.97 $ .

There are traditionally 3 methods to estimate : 1. GDP – output (the goods and services produced in the economy), 2. expenditure (money invested by businesses and spending by households and government) and 3. income (business profits, household income and government tax take)

In India, it's measured as GDP = C + I + G+ NX. Where C is the consumption expenditure, G is government expenditure, I is the investment, and NX is the net exports. The production output for determining GDP takes into account the total output produced by a country minus the goods consumed in the process.

In 2021, the services sector accounted for 53.89% of total India's GVA (Gross Value Added) of 179.15 lakh crore Indian rupees. With GVA of Rs. 46.44 lakh crore, the Industry sector contributed 25.92%. While Agriculture and allied sector share 20.19%. The tag of highest populated country will have to be seen in this light.

Another report projects the growth in double- digits for the next few years :

2027 5,427.39*

2026 4,951.62*

2025 4,511.85*

2024 4,105.38* * GDP in Billion USD

The country's per capita income is likely to grow by 70% (approx) to $4,000 by fiscal 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal 2023, helping it become a middle-income economy with a $6 trillion GDP, more than half of which will be coming in from household consumption, says a research report.

So, essentially, this is a time for quiet consolidation, robust enthusiasm, measured pride and serious planning. Whether the soft-power which India undoubtedly has today will be further enhanced is for all of us to ensure. Whether it will be a leader among countries is also a matter of aspiration. But it will be an exciting journey !

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Nov 21, 2023
Rated 5 out of 5 stars.

Very well written and articulated

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