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PLAN TO WIN .. but know the odds of winning & losing

The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) was invented by the useful John Hollinger to encompass all statistics in basketball into one number.

He decided that a mythical average player would achieve a PER of 15. As on February 3, closest were Taj Gibson (15.04) and Donte DiVincenzo (14.99).

Assuming the average NBA score to be 111.2 (2018-19) 111.8 (2019-20) 112.1 (2020-21), that would make the mythical average players' contribution close to 14%.

Now business is not all about winning always but equally of surviving in the lean times and thriving when the tide changes.

In Search of Excellence is a book written by Tom Peters and Robert H. Waterman Jr. First published in 1982, it sold three million copies in its first four years.

But of the 30 'excellent' companies listed, 4 became 'Stars', 5 outperformed, 8 were 'Average', 4 under performed and 9 actually 'failed' in the next 20 years 1982 - 2002.

So even in a targeted study, 30% were 'Successes' and 30% 'Failures' with almost 40% were 'Static' even where these were tracked immediately after the book.

THE SECOND OPINION believes with Churchill that 'Failure is not Fatal' while 'Success is not Final' and maps the way ahead in any eventuality.

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